Macro disturbances intensify; tin market awaits breakthrough opportunities [SMM tin futures brief comment]

On August 5, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,490 yuan/mt in the afternoon session, up 1,340 yuan or 0.5% from the previous day. Intraday prices fluctuated rangebound around the 266,000 yuan/mt pivot, hitting a session high of 267,650 yuan/mt and a low of 265,080 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 42,925 lots while open interest fell by 824 lots to 26,388 lots, indicating cautious positioning by both bulls and bears at key levels. The LME tin 3-month contract traded near $33,175/mt during the same period.

Bullish factors: The probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in September rose to 94% (later revised to 68%), pressuring the US dollar index to pull back. China's 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to boost infrastructure and manufacturing investment, providing policy support for industrial metal demand.

Bearish headwinds: The US imposed 15%-41% tariffs on 67 countries, raising concerns about trade chain cost transmission. International crude oil prices plunged 1.52% in a single day, weighing on commodity sentiment. The EU suspended retaliatory measures against the US but uncertainties persist.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract continues to move sideways within the 255,000-283,000 yuan/mt range. A faster LME inventory drawdown or weaker US dollar could push prices toward the 269,000 yuan resistance level. Conversely, stronger-than-expected production resumptions in Myanmar or weaker traditional demand may test the 263,000 yuan support. Current spot market activity remains dominated by rigid-demand restocking with cautious sentiment, awaiting clarity on ore supply policies (Myanmar's production timeline) and macro risk clearance (US Fed policy and trade friction developments).